Know Before You Bid.
Defence Bid Intelligence in Amsterdam.

How Lucius Scores Bid Opportunities Before You Commit

The average bid burns £10,000 to £50,000 in staff time before submission. Lucius runs the bid/no-bid analysis as a four-stage capability fit assessment that finishes in roughly three hours, not three days, so commit decisions are evidence-backed, not gut calls.

1. 01

   Win probability model

   Capability fit (how well your delivery experience maps to scored criteria) × past-win signal (how often you have won similar contracts) × deadline feasibility (whether the timeline supports your typical drafting cadence). Each input is quantified and the output is a 0 to 100 win probability with a sensitivity breakdown showing which factor moves the score most.

2. 02

   Commercial risk audit

   Penalty exposure quantification with worked examples: if liquidated damages cap at 10% of contract value and the contract is £500k, your maximum downside is £50k; if the cap is unlimited, the downside is your entire balance sheet. Indemnity asymmetries (where your indemnity to the buyer exceeds theirs to you), pricing model risks (fixed-price on uncertain scope), and clause-driven margin compression are surfaced with monetary estimates.

3. 03

   Competitive pressure indicator

   For framework-style opportunities Lucius estimates likely competitor count from historical contract awards in the same CPV code and value band. Tenders with 40+ historical bidders compress margins; tenders with 3 to 5 historical bidders are where strategic wins happen. The indicator names the typical incumbents so business development can pre-empt rather than react.

4. 04

   The bid/no-bid verdict

   A single decisive output: Bid, Bid-with-caveats, or Skip. Citation-backed rationale tied to specific clauses and capability gaps. Bid-with-caveats outputs include the specific contract amendments to request during clarifications, turning a marginal opportunity into a winnable one without commercial exposure.